Thèse soutenue par Dietrich Brockhagen
Préparée sous la direction de Jean-Charles Hourcade
Président du jury : M. Patrick Criqui, Directeur de recherche au CNRS
Jury : M. Richard Baron, Chargé de recherche au Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
Mme Dominique Dron, Présidente de la Mission interministérielle sur l'Effet de serre
M. Jean-Christophe Pereau, Professeur à l'université de Marne-la-Vallée
Spécialité : Économie de l'environnement
International distortions of competition under emissions trading due to differences in national permit allocation. Theory and empirical analysis of the EU-energy intensive industry
The first part develops a theory of distortions of competition among competing firms, induced by differences in the method and/or stringency of national allocation of greenhouse gas emission permits in an international emissions trading system. By applying neoclassical theory on output optimisation, price setting and other factors such as R&D expenditures, five potentially distorting effects are identified for perfect and imperfect markets. The second part develops economic indicators and a two tier approach, which can be applied empirically, in order to test whether an industry is vulnerable to the potential effects found before. The third part applies the two tier approach empirically to four sectors of the energy intensive industry in the EU: steel making, cement, oil refining and electricity generation.
The steel industry is the most vulnerable industry, followed by oil refining, whereas cement and electricity are not vulnerable. At a permit price of 20€/ton CO2, and with national allocations that differ more than 40% in terms of allowed emissions per ton product output, this thesis predicts that some steel makers would be forced out of the market.